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ITAKURA Ken

    Graduate School of Economics Department of Economics　Professor
Contact： itakuraecon.nagoya-cu.ac.jp
Last Updated :2024/04/26

Researcher Information

J-Global ID

Research Interests

  • International Trade   Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)   Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) Analysis   Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)   Free Trade Agreement   

Research Areas

  • Humanities & social sciences / Economic policy / International Trade
  • Humanities & social sciences / Economic statistics / CGE Database

Academic & Professional Experience

  • 2021/05 - Today  Tohoku UniversityPolicy Design Lab., Graduate School of Economics and ManagementVisiting Professor
  • 2014/04 - Today  Nagoya City UniversityGraduate School of Economics Department of EconomicsProfessor
  • 2016/09 - 2017/07  Purdue UniversityCenter for Global Trade AnalysisVisiting Scholar
  • 2007/04 - 2014/03  Nagoya City UniversityGraduate School of Economics Department of EconomicsAssociate Professor
  • 2008/09 - 2009/08  The World BankDevelopment Prospect GroupVisiting Researcher
  • 2008/03 - 2008/03  University of New South WalesAustralian School of Business,Visiting Scholar
  • 2006/10 - 2007/03  Nagoya UniversityGraduate School of International DevelopmentVisiting Scholar
  • 2005/04 - 2007/03  Nagoya City UniversityGraduate School of Economics Department of EconomicsAssistant Professor
  • 2005/10 - 2006/03  Nagoya UniversityGraduate School of International DevelopmentVisiting Scholar
  • 2004 - 2005  Purdue UniversityCenter for Global Trade Analysis, and Synthetic Environment for Analysis and Simulation LabResearch Associate
  • 1996 - 1998  The World BankConsultant

Association Memberships

  • Pan Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies   Japan Society for International Economics   

Published Papers

Books etc

  • Ing, Lili Yan; Richardson, Martin; 浦田, 秀次郎; 板倉, 健; 岡部, 美砂; 三浦, 秀之 勁草書房 2020/12 9784326504770 ix, 317p
  • “Taking Part in RCEP: CGE Analysis Focusing on Industrial Impact,” in Designing Integrated Industrial Policies
    Shigeru Thomas Otsubo; Christian Samen Otchia (ContributorChapter 17 in Vol. II)Routledge 2020
  • “The Contribution of Productivity Linkages to the General Equilibrium Analysis of Free TradeAgreements,” Chapter 12 in Ianchovichina and Walmsley eds., Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis
    Cambridge University Press 2012
  • 「TPP, FTAAP の経済効果分析:Dynamic GTAP モテ?ルによるシミュレーション」第 8 章, 浦田秀次郎, 21 世紀政策研究所(編),『日本経済の復活と成長へのロート?マッフ?』
    文眞堂 2012

Conference Activities & Talks

  • Global Value Chains and Trade Response to Trade War  [Not invited]
    Ken Itakura
    78th Annual Meeting of the Japan Society of International Economics  2019/09
  • Incorporating Global Value Chains into the Dynamic GTAP Model  [Not invited]
    Ken Itakura
    22th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis  2019/06
  • Effect of Non-Tariff Measures as Fixed Costs on Trade and Welfare: A Case of ASEAN Countries  [Not invited]
    Ken Itakura
    76th Annual Meeting of the Japan Society of International Economics  2017/10
  • 経済連携協定等による海運産業への影響について  [Not invited]
    運輸政策研究機構 国際問題研究所主催, 経済連携協定等と海上貿易への影響に関するセミナー  2013
  • Impact of Regional Integration in ASEAN: Economy-wide Simulation Analysis  [Not invited]
    3rdTechnical Meeting on the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint Mid Term Review (MTR) Project, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asisa (ERIA)  2012

MISC

Research Grants & Projects

  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2022/04 -2025/03 
    Author : 板倉 健
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2019/04 -2022/03 
    Author : Itakura Ken
     
    As the FTAs has been increasing over the past decades, retreats from liberalizing trade have also risen, for some escalating to the U.S.'s withdrawal from TPP and to the trade war between U.S. and China. Our aim for this project was to investigate the economic effects of trade liberalization as well as trade conflict. Interlinkages of production activities across countries play an important role in affecting international trade and investment. Global value chains that capture the interlinkages were adopted in our modeling. For these objectives, we developed a recursively dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade, which embodies the global value chains (GVCs) structure. We applied this model to estimate the potential economic effect of US-China trade war, and also to examine the combination effect of CPTPP and RCEP. The former was published in journal and the latter was presented at conference. We commenced to explore the sub-national effect of trade policies.
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2016/04 -2019/03 
    Author : Lee Hiro
     
    The objectives of this research are twofold. First, we estimate the cost of U.S. withdrawal from the TPP. Second, we construct a dynamic CGE model that incorporates global value chains (GVCs), quantify the welfare and sectoral output effects of the the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TPP (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and compare the results with those obtained from a conventional dynamic CGE model. The results suggest that the United States would lose an opportunity to gain about $200 billion in its real GDP by 2035 when it never becomes a member of the TPP/CPTPP. When the GVC structure is added to a dynamic CGE model, the magnitudes of changes in sectoral output under the CPTPP and RCEP are projected to become considerably greater in a number of industries. By contrast, the welfare effects are relatively similar between the models with and without the GVC structure.
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2015/04 -2019/03 
    Author : Itakura Ken; Oyamada Kazuhiko
     
    As economic interdependency has deepened in the world economy with increasing number of FTAs, there have been burgeoning literature estimating economic impact of FTAs. However, few studies have analyzed the FTAs' liberalization effects of trade in goods and services as well as investment by applying dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We developed a dynamic global CGE model and constructed multiple policy scenarios for 2011-2035, and we estimated the economic impact of mega FTAs such as TPP and RCEP. Using a gravity model of FDI inflow and bilateral investment treaty, we applied the resulting estimates to our policy simulations of FTAs. We quantitatively identified FTA's liberalization effect arising from reducing import tariffs and barriers in services trade, improving logistic of merchandise goods, investment commitment in the FTA's member countries. Among the liberalization effects, investment commitment significantly contributes to welfare gains.
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2015/04 -2019/03 
    Author : OTSUBO Shigeru
     
    As the SDGs pointed out, in the socioeconomic development of a developing country, sustainable development of domestic industries and firms is essential to boost economic growth and employment creation that bring about poverty reduction. Taking into consideration that the industries in developing countries have been polarized or marginalized, this research intended to focus on the designs of “integrated industrial policies” that cam promote “inclusive” industrial development. The research project produced a set of two books (in English) as a unique guide and a collection of piecewise and integrated policy designs for those in the international development community who try to promote sustained growth of industries and firms in developing countries by a well-coordinated set of industrial and supporting policies.
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2016 -2018 
    Author : Itakura Ken; Hertel Thomas W.
     
    As economic interdependency has deepened with increasing number of FTAs and EPAs, there have been burgeoning literature estimating economic impact of FTAs. However, few studies have analyzed the FTAs' liberalization effects of trade in goods and services as well as investment by applying dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We developed a dynamic global CGE model and constructed multiple policy scenarios, and we estimated the economic impact of FTAs. With a gravity model of FDI inflow and bilateral investment treaty, we applied resulting estimates to our policy simulation. We quantitatively identified FTA's liberalization effect arising from reducing import tariffs and barriers in services trade, improving logistic of merchandise goods, and investment commitment in FTAs. Among the liberalization effects, investment commitment significantly contributes to welfare gains. These are the fruits of collaborative research at the Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University.
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2013/04 -2016/03 
    Author : Lee Hiro; OTSUKI Tsunehiro; ITAKURA Ken; PLUMMER Michael G.; ROLAND-HOLST David; VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE Dominique
     
    In October 2015, Ministers of the 12 Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries announced conclusion of their negotiations. The objectives of this research are twofold. First, by using a dynamic CGE model with plausible sequences of TPP enlargements, we offer results that are highly policy relevant. Second, we examine additional effects of the TPP, namely trade-induced agricultural policy reforms in Japan and the positive impact on productivity. The results suggest that when Japan's agricultural policy reforms would result in an increase in productivity of its agricultural sectors, the extent of output contraction of agricultural and processed food sectors in the country would be reduced significantly except for dairy products. In addition, when import and export penetrations are assumed to exert a positive effect on productivity, the magnitudes of welfare gains for all the member countries increase considerably.
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2012/04 -2015/03 
    Author : NAGANO Mamoru; ITAKURA Ken
     
    In this study, by focusing on emerging countries in Asia and Oceania, we provide empirical evidence of the similarities and differences in cross-border M&A and greenfield FDI determinants. We derive the following four main conclusions. First, an increase in host-country population size and decreases in per capita income and corporate tax rates generally attract both inward cross-border M&A and greenfield FDI to the host country. Second, however, a home-country firm tends to choose cross-border M&A when the host country sufficiently implements shareholder rights laws and the firm tends to choose greenfield FDI when the host country adequately enforces intellectual property rights laws. Third, a firm tends to choose greenfield FDI when the firm already has regional networks in the host country. Finally, a firm pursuing greenfield FDI experiences higher cumulative abnormal returns in its stock prices immediately before the investment.
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2012/04 -2015/03 
    Author : ITAKURA KEN; OYAMADA Kazuhiko
     
    Our aim for this research project is to develop a dynamic global CGE model of trade and foreign direct investment that is closely based on theoretical development. Following Dixon, Jerie and Rimmer (2015), we prototyped a module in CGE model that encompasses three different specifications of international trade, such as Armington (1969), Krugman (1987), and Melitz (2003). Prototyping of this flexible export module leads to a significant step to incorporate heterogeneous firms’ behavior on exports and foreign direct investment into a global CGE model, following Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple (2004).
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2010 -2012 
    Author : LEE Hiro; OTSUKI Tsunehiro; ITAKURA Ken; DAVID Roland-holst; DOMINIQUE Van Dermensbrugghe
     
    In response to the lack of progress on multilateral trade negotiations, Asian countries have actively implemented free-trade agreements (FTAs) in recent years. In this research, we examine what might be a desirable sequencing of FTAs for Asian countries. First, we find that it would be beneficial for countries to pursue region-wide FTAs, rather than bilateral FTAs. Second, since it is likely to require some time before realizing an Asia-wide FTA such as RCEP, Japan should first become a member of TPP, followed by an FTA with the EU and the formation of RCEP in the not too distant future.
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2008 -2010 
    Author : ITKURA Ken
     
    The main objective of this research is to develop a set of CGE model, database and programming environment that enable us to compute the impact of free trade agreement and/or economic partnership program on both international and regional economic variables. As a research outcome, we established programming environment to extend and to modify the existing CGE model and database. Estimating non-tariff barriers, splitting a sector into sub-sectors, and calibrating demand system are the examples of the programming environment's application. We continue our research activities to complete the regional CGE model as well as the database development.

Committee Membership

  • 2020/11 - Today   Economic and Social Research Institute   Visiting Senior Research Fellow

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